FLOWVIBES · R012 · kronos-btc

Konto-Simulation

Was aus deinem Startkapital geworden wäre, wenn der Bot diese Strategie über den Testzeitraum auf echten BTC-Daten gefahren hätte.

$50.00→$28.93-42.1%

✕ VERLIERT NACH KOSTEN

Diese simple Strategie verliert nach Kosten — der wertvollste, ehrlichste Befund.

Trades gesamt

383

181 long · 202 short

Trefferquote

46%

177 / 206

Ø Gewinn-Trade

+1.16%

Ø Verlust-Trade

-1.24%

Netto-Ergebnis

$-21.07

nach allen Kosten

Kosten gesamt

$6.94

Fees + Spread

Max. Drawdown

-53%

kompoundiert, peak-to-trough

Sharpe / Trade

-0.07

nicht annualisiert

Ø Haltezeit

12.0 h

pro Trade

Entry vs. Zufall

p=0.781

NICHT besser als Zufall

Konto-Verlauf ($)

Gewonnen vs. verloren

Was wurde getestet

Asset: BTC/USDT
Zeiteinheit: 1h Kerzen
Zeitraum: 13.11.2025 – 09.06.2026 (208 Tage, 5,000 Bars)
Strategie: VWAP-Reversion (Fade) — gegen den Markt: wettet, dass der Preis nach einer Übertreibung zur VWAP zurückkehrt. VWAP über das ganze Fenster (Tier-0-Vereinfachung).
Einstieg: Preis > 0.0σ von der VWAP entfernt → Gegenposition (Long unter, Short über)
Ausstieg: Rückkehr zur VWAP (Ziel) · Stop bei 0.0σ · spätestens nach max. Haltedauer
Ø Haltezeit: 12.0 h
Kosten / Trade: ~4 bps Round-Trip + Perp-Funding ~1 bps je 8h gehalten (konservativ)
Hebel: 1× (kein Hebel — volles Konto pro Trade, eine Position zur Zeit)

Vergleich: einfach BTC halten

Bot (diese Strategie): -42.1% → $28.93
Buy & Hold BTC: -38.7% → $30.65

Die ehrlichste Messlatte: schlägt der Bot überhaupt das simple Halten?

Alle simulierten Trades (383)

#	Entry (UTC)	Exit (UTC)	Richtung	Entry $	Exit $	Grund	Netto bps	Konto $
1	29.11 20:00	30.11 08:00	short	90,641	90,968	horizon	-42	$49.79
2	30.11 08:00	30.11 20:00	short	90,968	91,461	horizon	-59	$49.49
3	30.11 20:00	01.12 08:00	short	91,461	86,550	horizon	+531	$52.12
4	01.12 08:00	01.12 20:00	long	86,550	85,024	horizon	-181	$51.18
5	01.12 20:00	02.12 08:00	long	85,024	87,013	horizon	+228	$52.34
6	02.12 08:00	02.12 20:00	short	87,013	91,903	horizon	-567	$49.38
7	02.12 20:00	03.12 08:00	short	91,903	93,000	horizon	-125	$48.76
8	03.12 08:00	03.12 20:00	short	93,000	93,025	horizon	-8	$48.72
9	03.12 20:00	04.12 08:00	short	93,025	93,398	horizon	-46	$48.49
10	04.12 08:00	04.12 20:00	short	93,398	91,975	horizon	+147	$49.21
11	04.12 20:00	05.12 08:00	long	91,975	92,259	horizon	+25	$49.33
12	05.12 08:00	05.12 20:00	short	92,259	89,629	horizon	+280	$50.71
13	05.12 20:00	06.12 08:00	long	89,629	89,597	horizon	-10	$50.66
14	06.12 08:00	06.12 20:00	long	89,597	89,406	horizon	-26	$50.53
15	06.12 20:00	07.12 08:00	short	89,406	89,380	horizon	-3	$50.51
16	07.12 08:00	07.12 20:00	short	89,380	91,426	horizon	-234	$49.33
17	07.12 20:00	08.12 08:00	long	91,426	91,565	horizon	+9	$49.38
18	08.12 08:00	08.12 20:00	short	91,565	90,124	horizon	+152	$50.13
19	08.12 20:00	09.12 08:00	short	90,124	90,497	horizon	-47	$49.89
20	09.12 08:00	09.12 20:00	short	90,497	93,801	horizon	-370	$48.05
21	09.12 20:00	10.12 08:00	short	93,801	92,783	horizon	+103	$48.54
22	10.12 08:00	10.12 20:00	long	92,783	92,958	horizon	+14	$48.61
23	10.12 20:00	11.12 08:00	short	92,958	90,273	horizon	+283	$49.98
24	11.12 08:00	11.12 20:00	short	90,273	90,840	horizon	-68	$49.64
25	11.12 20:00	12.12 08:00	short	90,840	92,425	horizon	-181	$48.75
26	12.12 08:00	12.12 20:00	short	92,425	90,198	horizon	+236	$49.90
27	12.12 20:00	13.12 08:00	long	90,198	90,330	horizon	+9	$49.94
28	13.12 08:00	13.12 20:00	long	90,330	90,178	horizon	-22	$49.83
29	13.12 20:00	14.12 08:00	short	90,178	90,246	horizon	-13	$49.76
30	14.12 08:00	14.12 20:00	short	90,246	88,645	horizon	+172	$50.62
31	14.12 20:00	15.12 08:00	long	88,645	89,753	horizon	+119	$51.22
32	15.12 08:00	15.12 20:00	short	89,753	86,150	horizon	+396	$53.26
33	15.12 20:00	16.12 08:00	long	86,150	86,022	horizon	-21	$53.14
34	16.12 08:00	16.12 20:00	long	86,022	87,586	horizon	+177	$54.08
35	16.12 20:00	17.12 08:00	short	87,586	87,046	horizon	+56	$54.38
36	17.12 08:00	17.12 20:00	short	87,046	86,019	horizon	+113	$55.00
37	17.12 20:00	18.12 08:00	long	86,019	86,834	horizon	+89	$55.49
38	18.12 08:00	18.12 20:00	long	86,834	84,484	horizon	-276	$53.96
39	18.12 20:00	19.12 08:00	long	84,484	87,953	horizon	+405	$56.14
40	19.12 08:00	19.12 20:00	short	87,953	87,846	horizon	+7	$56.18
41	19.12 20:00	20.12 08:00	long	87,846	88,275	horizon	+43	$56.42
42	20.12 08:00	20.12 20:00	short	88,275	88,233	horizon	-0	$56.42
43	20.12 20:00	21.12 08:00	short	88,233	88,175	horizon	+1	$56.43
44	21.12 08:00	21.12 20:00	short	88,175	88,484	horizon	-40	$56.20
45	21.12 20:00	22.12 08:00	short	88,484	89,170	horizon	-84	$55.73
46	22.12 08:00	22.12 20:00	short	89,170	88,052	horizon	+120	$56.40
47	22.12 20:00	23.12 08:00	long	88,052	87,575	horizon	-60	$56.06
48	23.12 08:00	23.12 20:00	short	87,575	87,753	horizon	-25	$55.92
49	23.12 20:00	24.12 08:00	short	87,753	86,912	horizon	+90	$56.42
50	24.12 08:00	24.12 20:00	long	86,912	87,566	horizon	+70	$56.82
51	24.12 20:00	25.12 08:00	short	87,566	87,838	horizon	-37	$56.61
52	25.12 08:00	25.12 20:00	short	87,838	88,151	horizon	-41	$56.38
53	25.12 20:00	26.12 08:00	short	88,151	88,471	horizon	-42	$56.14
54	26.12 08:00	26.12 20:00	long	88,471	87,502	horizon	-115	$55.50
55	26.12 20:00	27.12 08:00	short	87,502	87,539	horizon	-10	$55.44
56	27.12 08:00	27.12 20:00	long	87,539	87,569	horizon	-2	$55.43
57	27.12 20:00	28.12 08:00	short	87,569	87,731	horizon	-24	$55.30
58	28.12 08:00	28.12 20:00	short	87,731	87,521	horizon	+19	$55.40
59	28.12 20:00	29.12 08:00	long	87,521	89,618	horizon	+234	$56.69
60	29.12 08:00	29.12 20:00	short	89,618	87,366	horizon	+246	$58.09
61	29.12 20:00	30.12 08:00	short	87,366	87,503	horizon	-22	$57.96
62	30.12 08:00	30.12 20:00	short	87,503	88,226	horizon	-88	$57.46
63	30.12 20:00	31.12 08:00	short	88,226	88,613	horizon	-50	$57.17
64	31.12 08:00	31.12 20:00	long	88,613	87,542	horizon	-126	$56.45
65	31.12 20:00	01.01 08:00	long	87,542	87,632	horizon	+4	$56.47
66	01.01 08:00	01.01 20:00	short	87,632	88,391	horizon	-92	$55.96
67	01.01 20:00	02.01 08:00	short	88,391	88,858	horizon	-59	$55.63
68	02.01 08:00	02.01 20:00	short	88,858	89,897	horizon	-122	$54.95
69	02.01 20:00	03.01 08:00	short	89,897	89,577	horizon	+30	$55.11
70	03.01 08:00	03.01 20:00	short	89,577	90,124	horizon	-66	$54.75
71	03.01 20:00	04.01 08:00	short	90,124	91,532	horizon	-162	$53.86
72	04.01 08:00	04.01 20:00	short	91,532	91,138	horizon	+38	$54.06
73	04.01 20:00	05.01 08:00	short	91,138	92,521	horizon	-158	$53.21
74	05.01 08:00	05.01 20:00	short	92,521	94,303	horizon	-198	$52.16
75	05.01 20:00	06.01 08:00	short	94,303	93,255	horizon	+105	$52.71
76	06.01 08:00	06.01 20:00	short	93,255	92,104	horizon	+118	$53.33
77	06.01 20:00	07.01 08:00	short	92,104	92,879	horizon	-90	$52.85
78	07.01 08:00	07.01 20:00	short	92,879	91,186	horizon	+177	$53.79
79	07.01 20:00	08.01 08:00	long	91,186	90,548	horizon	-76	$53.38
80	08.01 08:00	08.01 20:00	long	90,548	90,937	horizon	+38	$53.58
81	08.01 20:00	09.01 08:00	short	90,937	90,742	horizon	+16	$53.67
82	09.01 08:00	09.01 20:00	long	90,742	90,332	horizon	-50	$53.40
83	09.01 20:00	10.01 08:00	long	90,332	90,678	horizon	+32	$53.57
84	10.01 08:00	10.01 20:00	long	90,678	90,627	horizon	-11	$53.51
85	10.01 20:00	11.01 08:00	long	90,627	90,711	horizon	+3	$53.53
86	11.01 08:00	11.01 20:00	short	90,711	90,691	horizon	-3	$53.51
87	11.01 20:00	12.01 08:00	short	90,691	91,408	horizon	-85	$53.06
88	12.01 08:00	12.01 20:00	long	91,408	91,861	horizon	+45	$53.30
89	12.01 20:00	13.01 08:00	short	91,861	91,942	horizon	-15	$53.22
90	13.01 08:00	13.01 20:00	long	91,942	94,227	horizon	+244	$54.51
91	13.01 20:00	14.01 08:00	short	94,227	95,205	horizon	-110	$53.91
92	14.01 08:00	14.01 20:00	short	95,205	97,267	horizon	-222	$52.72
93	14.01 20:00	15.01 08:00	short	97,267	96,630	horizon	+59	$53.03
94	15.01 08:00	15.01 20:00	short	96,630	95,516	horizon	+110	$53.62
95	15.01 20:00	16.01 08:00	short	95,516	95,653	horizon	-20	$53.51
96	16.01 08:00	16.01 20:00	long	95,653	95,002	horizon	-73	$53.12
97	16.01 20:00	17.01 08:00	long	95,002	95,102	horizon	+4	$53.14
98	17.01 08:00	17.01 20:00	short	95,102	95,291	horizon	-25	$53.01
99	17.01 20:00	18.01 08:00	long	95,291	95,028	horizon	-34	$52.83
100	18.01 08:00	18.01 20:00	long	95,028	95,381	horizon	+32	$53.00
101	18.01 20:00	19.01 08:00	short	95,381	92,842	horizon	+260	$54.38
102	19.01 08:00	19.01 20:00	long	92,842	93,106	horizon	+23	$54.51
103	19.01 20:00	20.01 08:00	short	93,106	91,178	horizon	+201	$55.60
104	20.01 08:00	20.01 20:00	long	91,178	89,726	horizon	-164	$54.69
105	20.01 20:00	21.01 08:00	long	89,726	89,214	horizon	-63	$54.35
106	21.01 08:00	21.01 20:00	long	89,214	90,356	horizon	+123	$55.01
107	21.01 20:00	22.01 08:00	short	90,356	89,819	horizon	+53	$55.31
108	22.01 08:00	22.01 20:00	short	89,819	89,778	horizon	-0	$55.31
109	22.01 20:00	23.01 08:00	long	89,778	89,549	horizon	-31	$55.13
110	23.01 08:00	23.01 20:00	long	89,549	89,983	horizon	+43	$55.37
111	23.01 20:00	24.01 08:00	long	89,983	89,620	horizon	-46	$55.11
112	24.01 08:00	24.01 20:00	long	89,620	89,331	horizon	-37	$54.91
113	24.01 20:00	25.01 08:00	short	89,331	88,660	horizon	+69	$55.29
114	25.01 08:00	25.01 20:00	long	88,660	86,495	horizon	-249	$53.91
115	25.01 20:00	26.01 08:00	long	86,495	88,001	horizon	+168	$54.82
116	26.01 08:00	26.01 20:00	long	88,001	88,013	horizon	-4	$54.80
117	26.01 20:00	27.01 08:00	short	88,013	88,320	horizon	-41	$54.57
118	27.01 08:00	27.01 20:00	short	88,320	88,409	horizon	-15	$54.49
119	27.01 20:00	28.01 08:00	short	88,409	89,134	horizon	-88	$54.01
120	28.01 08:00	28.01 20:00	short	89,134	89,403	horizon	-35	$53.82
121	28.01 20:00	29.01 08:00	long	89,403	88,353	horizon	-123	$53.16
122	29.01 08:00	29.01 20:00	long	88,353	84,012	horizon	-496	$50.52
123	29.01 20:00	30.01 08:00	long	84,012	82,817	horizon	-148	$49.77
124	30.01 08:00	30.01 20:00	long	82,817	84,243	horizon	+167	$50.60
125	30.01 20:00	31.01 08:00	long	84,243	83,547	horizon	-89	$50.15
126	31.01 08:00	31.01 20:00	long	83,547	77,750	horizon	-699	$46.65
127	31.01 20:00	01.02 08:00	long	77,750	78,343	horizon	+70	$46.98
128	01.02 08:00	01.02 20:00	long	78,343	77,175	horizon	-154	$46.25
129	01.02 20:00	02.02 08:00	long	77,175	76,661	horizon	-73	$45.92
130	02.02 08:00	02.02 20:00	long	76,661	78,342	horizon	+214	$46.90
131	02.02 20:00	03.02 08:00	long	78,342	78,795	horizon	+52	$47.14
132	03.02 08:00	03.02 20:00	long	78,795	74,935	horizon	-495	$44.81
133	03.02 20:00	04.02 08:00	long	74,935	76,514	horizon	+205	$45.73
134	04.02 08:00	04.02 20:00	long	76,514	73,923	horizon	-344	$44.16
135	04.02 20:00	05.02 08:00	long	73,923	70,757	horizon	-434	$42.24
136	05.02 08:00	05.02 20:00	long	70,757	65,266	horizon	-781	$38.94
137	05.02 20:00	06.02 08:00	long	65,266	64,856	horizon	-69	$38.67
138	06.02 08:00	06.02 20:00	long	64,856	70,731	horizon	+901	$42.16
139	06.02 20:00	07.02 08:00	long	70,731	68,087	horizon	-380	$40.56
140	07.02 08:00	07.02 20:00	long	68,087	69,374	horizon	+184	$41.30
141	07.02 20:00	08.02 08:00	long	69,374	69,711	horizon	+43	$41.48
142	08.02 08:00	08.02 20:00	long	69,711	71,423	horizon	+241	$42.48
143	08.02 20:00	09.02 08:00	long	71,423	70,423	horizon	-146	$41.85
144	09.02 08:00	09.02 20:00	short	70,423	70,957	horizon	-81	$41.52
145	09.02 20:00	10.02 08:00	short	70,957	68,920	horizon	+281	$42.68
146	10.02 08:00	10.02 20:00	long	68,920	69,062	horizon	+16	$42.75
147	10.02 20:00	11.02 08:00	long	69,062	67,033	horizon	-300	$41.47
148	11.02 08:00	11.02 20:00	long	67,033	67,587	horizon	+78	$41.79
149	11.02 20:00	12.02 08:00	short	67,587	67,218	horizon	+49	$41.99
150	12.02 08:00	12.02 20:00	long	67,218	65,788	horizon	-218	$41.08
151	12.02 20:00	13.02 08:00	long	65,788	66,209	horizon	+58	$41.32
152	13.02 08:00	13.02 20:00	long	66,209	68,939	horizon	+407	$43.00
153	13.02 20:00	14.02 08:00	long	68,939	69,219	horizon	+35	$43.15
154	14.02 08:00	14.02 20:00	short	69,219	69,874	horizon	-100	$42.72
155	14.02 20:00	15.02 08:00	short	69,874	70,828	horizon	-143	$42.11
156	15.02 08:00	15.02 20:00	short	70,828	68,287	horizon	+354	$43.60
157	15.02 20:00	16.02 08:00	long	68,287	68,588	horizon	+38	$43.77
158	16.02 08:00	16.02 20:00	long	68,588	67,913	horizon	-103	$43.31
159	16.02 20:00	17.02 08:00	long	67,913	68,388	horizon	+64	$43.59
160	17.02 08:00	17.02 20:00	long	68,388	67,793	horizon	-92	$43.19
161	17.02 20:00	18.02 08:00	long	67,793	68,106	horizon	+40	$43.36
162	18.02 08:00	18.02 20:00	short	68,106	66,177	horizon	+278	$44.57
163	18.02 20:00	19.02 08:00	long	66,177	67,206	horizon	+150	$45.24
164	19.02 08:00	19.02 20:00	long	67,206	67,050	horizon	-28	$45.11
165	19.02 20:00	20.02 08:00	short	67,050	67,826	horizon	-122	$44.56
166	20.02 08:00	20.02 20:00	short	67,826	67,646	horizon	+22	$44.66
167	20.02 20:00	21.02 08:00	long	67,646	67,856	horizon	+25	$44.77
168	21.02 08:00	21.02 20:00	short	67,856	68,544	horizon	-106	$44.29
169	21.02 20:00	22.02 08:00	short	68,544	68,005	horizon	+73	$44.61
170	22.02 08:00	22.02 20:00	short	68,005	67,428	horizon	+80	$44.97
171	22.02 20:00	23.02 08:00	short	67,428	65,959	horizon	+212	$45.92
172	23.02 08:00	23.02 20:00	long	65,959	64,295	horizon	-257	$44.74
173	23.02 20:00	24.02 08:00	long	64,295	63,193	horizon	-177	$43.95
174	24.02 08:00	24.02 20:00	long	63,193	64,435	horizon	+192	$44.79
175	24.02 20:00	25.02 08:00	long	64,435	65,028	horizon	+86	$45.17
176	25.02 08:00	25.02 20:00	long	65,028	69,038	horizon	+612	$47.94
177	25.02 20:00	26.02 08:00	short	69,038	67,825	horizon	+170	$48.75
178	26.02 08:00	26.02 20:00	long	67,825	67,589	horizon	-40	$48.56
179	26.02 20:00	27.02 08:00	long	67,589	67,691	horizon	+9	$48.60
180	27.02 08:00	27.02 20:00	long	67,691	65,392	horizon	-345	$46.93
181	27.02 20:00	28.02 08:00	long	65,392	63,826	horizon	-246	$45.77
182	28.02 08:00	28.02 20:00	long	63,826	66,362	horizon	+392	$47.57
183	28.02 20:00	01.03 08:00	long	66,362	67,141	horizon	+111	$48.10
184	01.03 08:00	01.03 20:00	short	67,141	65,962	horizon	+171	$48.92
185	01.03 20:00	02.03 08:00	short	65,962	66,008	horizon	-13	$48.86
186	02.03 08:00	02.03 20:00	short	66,008	68,967	horizon	-453	$46.64
187	02.03 20:00	03.03 08:00	short	68,967	68,173	horizon	+109	$47.15
188	03.03 08:00	03.03 20:00	short	68,173	68,435	horizon	-43	$46.95
189	03.03 20:00	04.03 08:00	short	68,435	69,493	horizon	-161	$46.19
190	04.03 08:00	04.03 20:00	short	69,493	73,612	horizon	-598	$43.43
191	04.03 20:00	05.03 08:00	short	73,612	72,056	horizon	+205	$44.32
192	05.03 08:00	05.03 20:00	short	72,056	70,918	horizon	+153	$45.00
193	05.03 20:00	06.03 08:00	short	70,918	71,056	horizon	-26	$44.89
194	06.03 08:00	06.03 20:00	short	71,056	68,132	horizon	+407	$46.71
195	06.03 20:00	07.03 08:00	long	68,132	67,843	horizon	-48	$46.49
196	07.03 08:00	07.03 20:00	short	67,843	67,080	horizon	+107	$46.99
197	07.03 20:00	08.03 08:00	long	67,080	67,320	horizon	+30	$47.13
198	08.03 08:00	08.03 20:00	long	67,320	67,337	horizon	-2	$47.11
199	08.03 20:00	09.03 08:00	long	67,337	67,555	horizon	+26	$47.24
200	09.03 08:00	09.03 20:00	short	67,555	68,992	horizon	-218	$46.21
201	09.03 20:00	10.03 08:00	short	68,992	70,406	horizon	-211	$45.23
202	10.03 08:00	10.03 20:00	short	70,406	70,044	horizon	+46	$45.44
203	10.03 20:00	11.03 08:00	long	70,044	69,648	horizon	-62	$45.16
204	11.03 08:00	11.03 20:00	short	69,648	70,642	horizon	-148	$44.49
205	11.03 20:00	12.03 08:00	short	70,642	69,826	horizon	+109	$44.98
206	12.03 08:00	12.03 20:00	short	69,826	70,432	horizon	-92	$44.57
207	12.03 20:00	13.03 08:00	long	70,432	71,612	horizon	+162	$45.29
208	13.03 08:00	13.03 20:00	short	71,612	71,190	horizon	+54	$45.53
209	13.03 20:00	14.03 08:00	short	71,190	70,597	horizon	+77	$45.88
210	14.03 08:00	14.03 20:00	long	70,597	70,700	horizon	+10	$45.93
211	14.03 20:00	15.03 08:00	short	70,700	71,454	horizon	-113	$45.41
212	15.03 08:00	15.03 20:00	short	71,454	71,550	horizon	-18	$45.33
213	15.03 20:00	16.03 08:00	short	71,550	73,457	horizon	-272	$44.09
214	16.03 08:00	16.03 20:00	short	73,457	73,963	horizon	-74	$43.77
215	16.03 20:00	17.03 08:00	short	73,963	74,249	horizon	-45	$43.57
216	17.03 08:00	17.03 20:00	short	74,249	74,511	horizon	-40	$43.40
217	17.03 20:00	18.03 08:00	short	74,511	73,884	horizon	+78	$43.74
218	18.03 08:00	18.03 20:00	short	73,884	71,072	horizon	+376	$45.38
219	18.03 20:00	19.03 08:00	long	71,072	70,191	horizon	-130	$44.79
220	19.03 08:00	19.03 20:00	short	70,191	70,272	horizon	-17	$44.71
221	19.03 20:00	20.03 08:00	short	70,272	70,855	horizon	-89	$44.32
222	20.03 08:00	20.03 20:00	long	70,855	70,178	horizon	-101	$43.87
223	20.03 20:00	21.03 08:00	short	70,178	70,727	horizon	-84	$43.50
224	21.03 08:00	21.03 20:00	short	70,727	70,396	horizon	+42	$43.68
225	21.03 20:00	22.03 08:00	short	70,396	68,919	horizon	+204	$44.57
226	22.03 08:00	22.03 20:00	short	68,919	68,200	horizon	+99	$45.02
227	22.03 20:00	23.03 08:00	long	68,200	68,333	horizon	+14	$45.08
228	23.03 08:00	23.03 20:00	long	68,333	70,679	horizon	+338	$46.60
229	23.03 20:00	24.03 08:00	long	70,679	71,292	horizon	+81	$46.98
230	24.03 08:00	24.03 20:00	short	71,292	69,377	horizon	+264	$48.22
231	24.03 20:00	25.03 08:00	short	69,377	70,927	horizon	-229	$47.11
232	25.03 08:00	25.03 20:00	long	70,927	70,883	horizon	-11	$47.06
233	25.03 20:00	26.03 08:00	short	70,883	70,087	horizon	+106	$47.56
234	26.03 08:00	26.03 20:00	long	70,087	68,534	horizon	-227	$46.48
235	26.03 20:00	27.03 08:00	short	68,534	68,540	horizon	-7	$46.45
236	27.03 08:00	27.03 20:00	long	68,540	66,041	horizon	-370	$44.73
237	27.03 20:00	28.03 08:00	long	66,041	66,561	horizon	+73	$45.06
238	28.03 08:00	28.03 20:00	long	66,561	66,917	horizon	+48	$45.27
239	28.03 20:00	29.03 08:00	short	66,917	66,671	horizon	+31	$45.41
240	29.03 08:00	29.03 20:00	long	66,671	66,349	horizon	-53	$45.17
241	29.03 20:00	30.03 08:00	long	66,349	67,624	horizon	+186	$46.01
242	30.03 08:00	30.03 20:00	long	67,624	66,550	horizon	-164	$45.26
243	30.03 20:00	31.03 08:00	long	66,550	67,368	horizon	+117	$45.79
244	31.03 08:00	31.03 20:00	long	67,368	67,839	horizon	+65	$46.08
245	31.03 20:00	01.04 08:00	long	67,839	68,692	horizon	+120	$46.64
246	01.04 08:00	01.04 20:00	short	68,692	68,177	horizon	+70	$46.96
247	01.04 20:00	02.04 08:00	long	68,177	66,931	horizon	-189	$46.08
248	02.04 08:00	02.04 20:00	short	66,931	66,976	horizon	-12	$46.02
249	02.04 20:00	03.04 08:00	long	66,976	67,042	horizon	+4	$46.04
250	03.04 08:00	03.04 20:00	long	67,042	66,886	horizon	-28	$45.91
251	03.04 20:00	04.04 08:00	short	66,886	67,015	horizon	-25	$45.79
252	04.04 08:00	04.04 20:00	short	67,015	67,288	horizon	-46	$45.58
253	04.04 20:00	05.04 08:00	short	67,288	66,821	horizon	+64	$45.87
254	05.04 08:00	05.04 20:00	long	66,821	67,361	horizon	+76	$46.22
255	05.04 20:00	06.04 08:00	long	67,361	69,116	horizon	+255	$47.40
256	06.04 08:00	06.04 20:00	short	69,116	69,740	horizon	-95	$46.95
257	06.04 20:00	07.04 08:00	long	69,740	68,625	horizon	-166	$46.17
258	07.04 08:00	07.04 20:00	short	68,625	69,011	horizon	-61	$45.88
259	07.04 20:00	08.04 08:00	short	69,011	71,628	horizon	-385	$44.12
260	08.04 08:00	08.04 20:00	short	71,628	71,318	horizon	+38	$44.29
261	08.04 20:00	09.04 08:00	short	71,318	70,982	horizon	+41	$44.47
262	09.04 08:00	09.04 20:00	short	70,982	72,096	horizon	-162	$43.75
263	09.04 20:00	10.04 08:00	short	72,096	71,482	horizon	+79	$44.09
264	10.04 08:00	10.04 20:00	short	71,482	73,236	horizon	-250	$42.99
265	10.04 20:00	11.04 08:00	short	73,236	72,745	horizon	+61	$43.25
266	11.04 08:00	11.04 20:00	short	72,745	73,687	horizon	-134	$42.67
267	11.04 20:00	12.04 08:00	short	73,687	71,665	horizon	+268	$43.82
268	12.04 08:00	12.04 20:00	short	71,665	71,084	horizon	+76	$44.15
269	12.04 20:00	13.04 08:00	short	71,084	70,814	horizon	+32	$44.29
270	13.04 08:00	13.04 20:00	short	70,814	73,322	horizon	-359	$42.70
271	13.04 20:00	14.04 08:00	short	73,322	74,546	horizon	-173	$41.96
272	14.04 08:00	14.04 20:00	short	74,546	74,223	horizon	+38	$42.12
273	14.04 20:00	15.04 08:00	short	74,223	73,730	horizon	+60	$42.38
274	15.04 08:00	15.04 20:00	short	73,730	75,003	horizon	-178	$41.62
275	15.04 20:00	16.04 08:00	short	75,003	74,707	horizon	+33	$41.76
276	16.04 08:00	16.04 20:00	short	74,707	75,343	horizon	-90	$41.39
277	16.04 20:00	17.04 08:00	short	75,343	75,075	horizon	+30	$41.51
278	17.04 08:00	17.04 20:00	short	75,075	77,394	horizon	-314	$40.21
279	17.04 20:00	18.04 08:00	short	77,394	76,998	horizon	+45	$40.39
280	18.04 08:00	18.04 20:00	short	76,998	75,650	horizon	+170	$41.07
281	18.04 20:00	19.04 08:00	long	75,650	75,252	horizon	-59	$40.83
282	19.04 08:00	19.04 20:00	short	75,252	74,965	horizon	+33	$40.97
283	19.04 20:00	20.04 08:00	short	74,965	74,837	horizon	+11	$41.02
284	20.04 08:00	20.04 20:00	long	74,837	76,297	horizon	+190	$41.79
285	20.04 20:00	21.04 08:00	long	76,297	76,084	horizon	-34	$41.65
286	21.04 08:00	21.04 20:00	short	76,084	75,023	horizon	+134	$42.21
287	21.04 20:00	22.04 08:00	short	75,023	78,013	horizon	-404	$40.51
288	22.04 08:00	22.04 20:00	short	78,013	78,847	horizon	-112	$40.05
289	22.04 20:00	23.04 08:00	short	78,847	78,049	horizon	+95	$40.43
290	23.04 08:00	23.04 20:00	short	78,049	77,727	horizon	+36	$40.58
291	23.04 20:00	24.04 08:00	short	77,727	77,645	horizon	+5	$40.60
292	24.04 08:00	24.04 20:00	short	77,645	77,629	horizon	-3	$40.59
293	24.04 20:00	25.04 08:00	short	77,629	77,501	horizon	+10	$40.63
294	25.04 08:00	25.04 20:00	long	77,501	77,330	horizon	-27	$40.52
295	25.04 20:00	26.04 08:00	short	77,330	78,103	horizon	-106	$40.09
296	26.04 08:00	26.04 20:00	short	78,103	78,221	horizon	-20	$40.01
297	26.04 20:00	27.04 08:00	short	78,221	77,607	horizon	+73	$40.30
298	27.04 08:00	27.04 20:00	long	77,607	76,878	horizon	-99	$39.90
299	27.04 20:00	28.04 08:00	long	76,878	76,879	horizon	-6	$39.88
300	28.04 08:00	28.04 20:00	short	76,879	76,331	horizon	+66	$40.14
301	28.04 20:00	29.04 08:00	short	76,331	77,054	horizon	-101	$39.74
302	29.04 08:00	29.04 20:00	long	77,054	75,564	horizon	-198	$38.95
303	29.04 20:00	30.04 08:00	long	75,564	76,162	horizon	+73	$39.23
304	30.04 08:00	30.04 20:00	short	76,162	76,413	horizon	-38	$39.09
305	30.04 20:00	01.05 08:00	long	76,413	77,131	horizon	+88	$39.43
306	01.05 08:00	01.05 20:00	short	77,131	78,360	horizon	-164	$38.78
307	01.05 20:00	02.05 08:00	short	78,360	78,220	horizon	+12	$38.83
308	02.05 08:00	02.05 20:00	short	78,220	78,486	horizon	-39	$38.68
309	02.05 20:00	03.05 08:00	short	78,486	78,363	horizon	+10	$38.71
310	03.05 08:00	03.05 20:00	short	78,363	78,760	horizon	-56	$38.50
311	03.05 20:00	04.05 08:00	short	78,760	79,697	horizon	-125	$38.02
312	04.05 08:00	04.05 20:00	short	79,697	80,053	horizon	-50	$37.83
313	04.05 20:00	05.05 08:00	short	80,053	80,856	horizon	-106	$37.43
314	05.05 08:00	05.05 20:00	short	80,856	81,606	horizon	-98	$37.06
315	05.05 20:00	06.05 08:00	short	81,606	81,360	horizon	+24	$37.15
316	06.05 08:00	06.05 20:00	short	81,360	81,465	horizon	-18	$37.08
317	06.05 20:00	07.05 08:00	short	81,465	81,519	horizon	-13	$37.04
318	07.05 08:00	07.05 20:00	short	81,519	80,147	horizon	+163	$37.64
319	07.05 20:00	08.05 08:00	short	80,147	79,682	horizon	+52	$37.84
320	08.05 08:00	08.05 20:00	short	79,682	80,180	horizon	-67	$37.58
321	08.05 20:00	09.05 08:00	short	80,180	80,229	horizon	-12	$37.54
322	09.05 08:00	09.05 20:00	short	80,229	80,939	horizon	-93	$37.18
323	09.05 20:00	10.05 08:00	short	80,939	80,736	horizon	+19	$37.26
324	10.05 08:00	10.05 20:00	short	80,736	81,438	horizon	-92	$36.91
325	10.05 20:00	11.05 08:00	short	81,438	80,740	horizon	+80	$37.21
326	11.05 08:00	11.05 20:00	long	80,740	81,962	horizon	+146	$37.75
327	11.05 20:00	12.05 08:00	short	81,962	80,865	horizon	+128	$38.23
328	12.05 08:00	12.05 20:00	long	80,865	80,835	horizon	-9	$38.20
329	12.05 20:00	13.05 08:00	long	80,835	81,027	horizon	+18	$38.27
330	13.05 08:00	13.05 20:00	short	81,027	79,642	horizon	+166	$38.90
331	13.05 20:00	14.05 08:00	long	79,642	79,746	horizon	+7	$38.93
332	14.05 08:00	14.05 20:00	short	79,746	81,420	horizon	-215	$38.09
333	14.05 20:00	15.05 08:00	long	81,420	80,815	horizon	-80	$37.79
334	15.05 08:00	15.05 20:00	long	80,815	79,146	horizon	-211	$36.99
335	15.05 20:00	16.05 08:00	long	79,146	78,370	horizon	-104	$36.60
336	16.05 08:00	16.05 20:00	short	78,370	78,260	horizon	+9	$36.64
337	16.05 20:00	17.05 08:00	long	78,260	78,180	horizon	-16	$36.58
338	17.05 08:00	17.05 20:00	long	78,180	78,415	horizon	+25	$36.67
339	17.05 20:00	18.05 08:00	long	78,415	77,074	horizon	-177	$36.02
340	18.05 08:00	18.05 20:00	long	77,074	76,928	horizon	-24	$35.93
341	18.05 20:00	19.05 08:00	short	76,928	77,234	horizon	-46	$35.77
342	19.05 08:00	19.05 20:00	long	77,234	76,819	horizon	-59	$35.56
343	19.05 20:00	20.05 08:00	long	76,819	77,283	horizon	+54	$35.75
344	20.05 08:00	20.05 20:00	long	77,283	77,667	horizon	+45	$35.91
345	20.05 20:00	21.05 08:00	short	77,667	77,889	horizon	-35	$35.79
346	21.05 08:00	21.05 20:00	long	77,889	77,691	horizon	-30	$35.68
347	21.05 20:00	22.05 08:00	short	77,691	77,408	horizon	+30	$35.79
348	22.05 08:00	22.05 20:00	long	77,408	75,860	horizon	-205	$35.05
349	22.05 20:00	23.05 08:00	long	75,860	74,609	horizon	-171	$34.46
350	23.05 08:00	23.05 20:00	long	74,609	75,983	horizon	+179	$35.07
351	23.05 20:00	24.05 08:00	long	75,983	76,800	horizon	+101	$35.43
352	24.05 08:00	24.05 20:00	short	76,800	76,773	horizon	-2	$35.42
353	24.05 20:00	25.05 08:00	long	76,773	77,401	horizon	+76	$35.69
354	25.05 08:00	25.05 20:00	long	77,401	77,442	horizon	+0	$35.69
355	25.05 20:00	26.05 08:00	long	77,442	76,731	horizon	-98	$35.34
356	26.05 08:00	26.05 20:00	long	76,731	76,052	horizon	-93	$35.01
357	26.05 20:00	27.05 08:00	long	76,052	75,977	horizon	-16	$34.96
358	27.05 08:00	27.05 20:00	long	75,977	75,066	horizon	-125	$34.52
359	27.05 20:00	28.05 08:00	long	75,066	73,498	horizon	-215	$33.78
360	28.05 08:00	28.05 20:00	long	73,498	73,419	horizon	-16	$33.73
361	28.05 20:00	29.05 08:00	long	73,419	73,529	horizon	+9	$33.76
362	29.05 08:00	29.05 20:00	long	73,529	73,520	horizon	-6	$33.74
363	29.05 20:00	30.05 08:00	long	73,520	73,549	horizon	-2	$33.73
364	30.05 08:00	30.05 20:00	long	73,549	74,017	horizon	+59	$33.93
365	30.05 20:00	31.05 08:00	short	74,017	73,871	horizon	+14	$33.97
366	31.05 08:00	31.05 20:00	long	73,871	73,563	horizon	-47	$33.81
367	31.05 20:00	01.06 08:00	long	73,563	72,818	horizon	-107	$33.45
368	01.06 08:00	01.06 20:00	long	72,818	71,595	horizon	-173	$32.87
369	01.06 20:00	02.06 08:00	long	71,595	70,118	horizon	-212	$32.17
370	02.06 08:00	02.06 20:00	long	70,118	67,315	horizon	-405	$30.87
371	02.06 20:00	03.06 08:00	long	67,315	67,220	horizon	-20	$30.81
372	03.06 08:00	03.06 20:00	long	67,220	65,462	horizon	-267	$29.99
373	03.06 20:00	04.06 08:00	long	65,462	63,603	horizon	-290	$29.12
374	04.06 08:00	04.06 20:00	long	63,603	63,629	horizon	-1	$29.12
375	04.06 20:00	05.06 08:00	long	63,629	63,116	horizon	-87	$28.86
376	05.06 08:00	05.06 20:00	long	63,116	60,300	horizon	-451	$27.56
377	05.06 20:00	06.06 08:00	long	60,300	61,005	horizon	+111	$27.87
378	06.06 08:00	06.06 20:00	long	61,005	60,600	horizon	-71	$27.67
379	06.06 20:00	07.06 08:00	long	60,600	62,405	horizon	+292	$28.48
380	07.06 08:00	07.06 20:00	long	62,405	61,328	horizon	-178	$27.97
381	07.06 20:00	08.06 08:00	long	61,328	63,284	horizon	+313	$28.85
382	08.06 08:00	08.06 20:00	long	63,284	63,372	horizon	+9	$28.87
383	08.06 20:00	09.06 08:00	short	63,372	63,198	horizon	+21	$28.93

Verlauf — was wir bisher getestet haben

Run	Label	Datum	Params	Trades	Netto	B&H	Verdict
R012 ←	kronos-btc	2026-06-09	k0.0/s0.0	383	-42.1%	-38.7%	loses-after-cost
R011	orderflow-absorption	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	149	-8.6%	-20.0%	loses-after-cost
R010	markov-regime	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	435	-43.8%	+11.5%	loses-after-cost
R009	funding-fade	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	190	-14.5%	+11.5%	loses-after-cost
R008	fast-250	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	182	+0.3%	-3.4%	~break-even/noise
R007	avwap-trail	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	173	-2.0%	-3.4%	loses-after-cost
R006	avwap-htf	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	182	-0.3%	-3.4%	loses-after-cost
R005	avwap-pullback	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	335	-3.7%	-3.4%	loses-after-cost
R004	regime-filter	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	375	-4.0%	-3.4%	loses-after-cost
R003	maker-fees	2026-06-09	k2.0/s3.5	549	-4.1%	-3.4%	loses-after-cost

Jeder Lauf wird automatisch protokolliert (runs/runlog.jsonl). So sehen wir Progress statt Zufall — und das narrative „Warum/Was gelernt“ steht in flowvibes/EXPERIMENTS.md.

Wichtig — was das ist und was nicht. Das ist ein Tier-0-Prototyp auf einem Markt, einer simplen Strategie, einem Zeitraum. Kein Walk-Forward, keine Parameter-Robustheit, kein Out-of-Sample, modellierte (nicht real gemessene) Slippage. Es zeigt, dass die Maschine läuft und liefert ein erstes Gefühl — es ist kein Beweis für einen echten Edge. Die validierte Engine (mit den harten Gates) kommt später.

FLOWVIBES Reality Probe · echte Binance BTC/USDT 1h-Daten · generiert offline, keine Anlageberatung.